SARS-CoV-2 Apr 11 Update.
NO PANICKING!
Again, NO PANICKING ALLOWED!
CHART SUMMARIES
US
The US total cases and mortalities trajectories continue to suggest now that by Easter Sunday evening, 23,000 to 25,000 total individuals will have died.
The Growth Factor continues to bob up and down around the magic 1.00 line.
The mortality rate continues to climb and is now 3.86%. As the total cases diverges downward this causes the increase. What is notable is that the mortality trajectory has not changed where the total cases trajectories has decreased.
Spain
Spains trajectories for total cases and deaths continue to track parallel suggesting the worst is still ahead for them I suspect. The mortality 10.19%.
Italy
Italy’s trajectories for total cases and deaths are also parallel, but not as steep as Spain.
The mortality continues to climb and is now 12.79% and it has risen daily.
France
France’s trajectories for total cases and deaths are parallel and look to be very similar to Spain’s. The mortality is similar at 10.67%
UK
The trajectories for total cases and deaths are steeper than for Spain, Italy, and France. They are also parallel. The mortality rate is very high at 12.50%
Japan
The total case trajectories for Japan are steeper than the UK, Italy, France, and Spain. The total deaths is divergent though with a less steep angle. I wonder if this harbors a sudden increase in mortalities at some point.
It is of note that you can see similar a similar low rate before a sudden peak in the US. The mortality rate for the US and France suggests there was a peak and fall then gradual steady increase in mortalities.
We will have to continue to watch Japan which is earlier in the epidemic than other countries.
The mortality is down from 1.79% to 1.60 now.
Summary
Easter Sunday begins shortly. This will be a hard day for many as we celebrate our risen Lord. I pray for those ill and those with sick family or friends. I pray for those who will die alone today. May they come to know you beforehand. For those who know you now, Lord I thank you that you will be welcoming them according to their choice.
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