"Dark Winter"
Imagine the following scenario: Terrorists unnoticed release smallpox viruses in three American shopping malls. Unsuspecting customers are infected with the virus. After a good week, the disease is diagnosed in 20 people. With every day the viruses spread further. Panic sets in. Riots break out. The medical care system is completely overtaxed. Borders are closed. The economy is upside down. 21 days after the virus was released, the disease has already reached 25 American states and 10 other countries. In the meantime, 16,000 people have become infected and 1,000 have died. Doctors estimate that the number of infected people will rise to 300,000 in the next three weeks. One third will die.
A science fiction movie? No, but here a computer simulation was made of what would probably happen in an attack with smallpox viruses. The exercise, which was conducted by a group of renowned think tanks, took place in June 2001 and was named "Dark Winter".
After the attacks of September 11, 2001, "Dark Winter" took on a new, ominous meaning in the eyes of many. The terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington (D.C.) showed in a dramatic way that there are unscrupulous people who, out of pure hatred, are out to destroy countless lives. As the attacks also proved, neither the United States nor any other state is safe from such attacks. We live in a world where determined terrorists can wipe out thousands of lives in the blink of an eye.
In the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks, American politicians and news media employees were targeted with letters containing deadly anthrax bacteria. People were afraid. The media and experts fuelled these fears by speculating that terrorists could strike with even deadlier pathogens than anthrax - for example, plague or smallpox. Certain "rogue states", it was suspected, could already produce such material on a large scale in secret laboratories. The following are some recent statements:
"The World Medical Association recognizes the growing danger of devastating epidemics, perhaps even pandemics, that could be triggered by biological weapons. In theory, all countries are at risk. The release of smallpox, plague or anthrax could prove catastrophic in terms of the resulting diseases and deaths, combined with the panic that would be triggered by such epidemics" (American Medical Association).
"Unlike bombs and nerve gases, biological weapons are insidious: the incubation period means that the catastrophe is slowly and imperceptibly unfolding. Initially, only a few people are admitted to hospital. The symptoms may initially be puzzling to doctors or resemble those of more common diseases. By the time the doctors have identified the situation, entire cities could be infected" (Scientific American).
"If the smallpox virus were released today, the majority of the world's population would be defenseless, and with the 30 percent death rate the virus causes, nearly two billion people could die" (Foreign Affairs).
"All countries at risk", "whole cities infected", "two billion people [could] die" - these are alarming statements. How likely is a catastrophic biological weapons attack? This is a question that occupies experts. The following article explains some relevant aspects.
