Always follow the money:
- Don't believe you're surrounded by enemies because someone who benefits from discord told you so.
- Don't believe in a "solution" being sold by the guy that created the problem in the first place.
- Don't assume the chiefs of the opposing tribes are enemies, especially when they both obviously benefit with the resulting tribal war. As a corollary, don't assume everybody in the other tribe has to be an enemy (although some may be).
- Don't believe the bad news coming from people who benefit from giving bad news.
- No one will go out of his way to give you good news: you have to look yourself for the good news.
